Ms. Roongrat Veeraparkkaroon, Managing Director of CBRE Thailand, stated, “The year 2023 started with much more optimism than in previous years, on the back of significant improvements in sentiment in the final quarter of 2022. Individual and corporate clients have a greater degree of confidence about prospects for the year ahead. People have a clearer understanding of how they will manage their home and work life, and developers and investors have more confidence that their projects directly address the new requirements of their customers. Stakeholders have taken time to understand emerging residential and commercial real estate trends and adapted by applying appropriate strategies and policies for their businesses.”

“The Bank of Thailand forecast GDP growth of 3.6% in 2023, increasing from 3.2% in 2022. This prediction will largely depend on the number of tourists and the performance of the export industry. Of additional importance is how the Government balances the need to reduce fiscal stimulus without impacting overall consumption growth given the persistently high levels of personal debt,” added Ms. Chotika Tungsirisurp, Head of Research and Consulting, CBRE Thailand

However, the most positive trend is that we are no longer preoccupied and distracted by COVID-19; rather we enter the year knowing we have weathered the storm and now approach life with different expectations of where and how we live, work, and play.

Residential

2022 was another quiet year for the Bangkok downtown condominium sector, with over 95% of new units located in the midtown and suburban areas targeting the low- to mid-end market. Domestic buyers showed a preference for low-rise housing, preferring lower density, larger and more adaptable spaces. This year, developers will be even more active in launching low-rise housing projects that target domestic real demand.

In the downtown condominium market, CBRE expects developers to continue concentrating on clearing their ready-to-move-in inventory before assessing the potential to launch new projects in downtown Bangkok in the second half of the year. There will be a gradual recovery in terms of new launches in the downtown area, but that this will take time, and we still may only see a relatively modest number of launches in the downtown area in 2023. CBRE expects developers to continue launching condominium projects in the midtown and suburban areas, and a trend to watch is residential developers combining residential and commercial elements in mixed use projects.

Ms. Artitaya Kasemlawan, Head of Residential Sales – Project, CBRE Thailand, commented, “End-users have clear expectations and requirements that developers must meet to generate sales. Buyers continue to place great importance on space, functionality, privacy, open green spaces, wellness, and technology. Developers of luxury and super luxury housing projects will need to provide adaptable spaces to allow for multiple family members to work from home, space to facilitate multiple generations living under one roof, as well as allocate sufficient car parking with EV charging.”

“For the resale condominium market, buyers are more willing to buy older, larger units requiring renovation, as they often provide a unit size not typically found in more recent developments. These units generally sell for lower prices on a square meter basis, allowing buyers to invest in a renovation suited to their family requirements. Thai demand for overseas properties continues to favor the UK and Australia, often for family education purposes, as well as for investment, family wellbeing, and lifestyle fulfillment in locations such as Japan and the Maldives,” added Ms. Praphinleeya Phuengkhuankhan, Head of Residential Sales – Ad Hoc, CBRE Thailand.

Key Trends Summary:

• Developers focusing mostly on launching new low-rise housing projects
• Inventory clearance priority over launching new downtown condominiums
• Domestic end user demand still the key focus for developers 

Office

While much of 2022 saw a continuing trend for domestic companies to renew their existing leases, particularly in the case of large space occupiers, multinational companies (MNCs) in Bangkok have made significant progress in reviewing their future office needs, and some have already committed to relocating to new premium grade A office space.

Against a backdrop of significant increase to international standards and green office buildings, MNCs that have established new office workplace policies, particularly hybrid working, are capitalizing on the opportunity to upgrade the quality of their workplace to meet their corporate ESG requirements and address the war on retaining and attracting talent and providing a workplace environment that will encourage time spent at the office.

CBRE expects more leasing activity in 2023, with Thai companies committing to relocate from buildings they have occupied for over 20 years to embrace hybrid working in office buildings that set a new standard for Bangkok.

“Engaging with staff and implementing workplace strategy will be key for occupiers to embrace the future of work. While rising fit-out costs will also be a key consideration for occupiers, landlords will be motivated to offer highly competitive leasing packages in attempts to persuade large scale business to relocate. These new developments will incorporate dedicated agile workplaces and offer an array of services addressing the needs for the modern workplace to encompass wellness and lifestyle facilities,” added Mr. Sarut Virakul, Director of Office, CBRE Thailand.

Key Trends Summary:

• Completion of new international standard buildings will mean greater opportunities to relocate
• Landlords will offer competitive leasing packages to secure tenants
• ESG considerations and hybrid working will heavily influence relocation decision-making

Retail

The retail sector witnessed a greater degree of cooperation between landlord and tenant during the COVID-19 years than in most other sectors. This level of understanding benefits both sides as the sector never stops evolving. While the importance of incorporating technology, particularly in the online arena, has never been more evident, CBRE expects that customers will continue to demonstrate the importance of bricks and mortar and offline retailing.

There are six large retail development projects under construction and another seven projects announced, but the trend to watch will be the development of mid-scale retail developments to fit the needs and lifestyles of suburban residents.

Ms. Jariya Thumtrongkitkul, Head of Retail, CBRE Thailand, commented, “Although the importance of online shopping, payment and fulfillment will continue to grow, landlords will continue to invest in their bricks and mortar real estate to re-attract footfall. While online retailing offers convenience and offline offers experience, both are equally important and need a seamless integration. “

Key Trends Summary:

• Landlords renovating older centers to create fresher, more modern environments
• Landlords and retailers will find new ways to collaborate for mutual benefit
• In-store promotions, on-site events, and new retail experiences to attract shopper.

Industrial & Logistics

Demand for industrial land will continue in 2023 as developers rush to expand existing industrial estates and develop new ones to keep pace with demand due to the continuation of the China Plus One policy.

Renewed and refreshed incentives from the BOI will be needed to keep pace with competing countries in the region for FDI investment.

With continued investment in key infrastructure, particularly in the EEC and professionally managed industrial estates, Thailand is well placed to capitalize on the demand that was suppressed during the last few years.

Mr. Adam Bell, Head of Industrial and Logistics, CBRE Thailand, commented, “We expect that data center operators, semiconductor, and vehicle manufacturers – both traditional and electric – will  continue to view Thailand as a very viable option to locate their businesses. Thailand is strategically very well placed to attract more FDI in support of these growing industries”

Key Trends Summary:

• Accelerated expansion of serviced industrial land plots
• More FDI from key growth industries in technology and manufacturing
• Further adoption of robotics and modern technology in manufacturing and logistics

Hotel

The tourism sector ended 2022 on a very positive note and enters 2023 with optimism that it can build on the improved hotel performance and inbound international arrivals, boosted by the knowledge that Chinese tourists will be able to return to Thailand sooner than previously anticipated.

While the focus will inevitably return to international tourists, it is worth remembering the vital role domestic tourists played while Thai borders were closed and arrivals restricted. Hotels will have to continue to up their game as existing hotels reopen in the knowledge that over 10,000 keys are planned to be completed by the end of 2025, which will increase the supply of hotel keys in Bangkok by 12%, according o CBRE research.

Although many hotels experienced higher Average Daily Rate (ADR) performance in December 2022 compared with that of December 2019, occupancy rates were still lower and overall performance for 2022 was, unsurprisingly, well down versus 2019 given the significant difference in international tourist arrivals. Hotel owners and operators will be focusing on hotel cost controls, particularly those that incorporate long term ESG strategies, as well investments in technology and staff retention, with so many of those that lost their jobs being reluctant to return to the industry.

Mr. Atakawee Choosang, Head of Hotels, CBRE Thailand, commented “Owners and operators will dedicate time and resources to ensure they are best placed to capitalize on the expected increase in international arrivals to improve the bottom line after suffering losses in recent years. There may be opportunities for investors to acquire properties, as we have seen the price gap between sellers’ and buyers’ expectations narrowing as market sentiment improves.”

Key Trends Summary:

• Improved performance in economy and midscale hotels as tour groups and corporate travel returns
• ADR pressure as renovations and new openings in 2023 add more competition
• Operators focusing on incorporating further ESG processes and technology to improve guest experience

Capital Markets

Rising interest rates and a cautious lending environment will continue to limit capital markets transactions in 2023, but with improved sentiment overall a greater volume of land transactions can be expected.

Developers will also be open to joint venture partnerships, with Japanese groups continuing to have a positive outlook towards Thailand. While the residential condominium sector has been the preferred sector for joint venture, it is expected that this year other sectors may have greater focus than before, particularly offices and the industrial and logistics market.

Mr. Barnaby Swainson, Head of Investment and Land, CBRE Thailand, added, “Large-scale mixed-use projects either under development or in the planning phase may seek joint ventures or new sources of capital as conventional domestic lenders are expected to remain cautious. Landowners are also advised to explore options to lease their land if they are unwilling to development themselves or sell, as the tax burden of holding vacant land will continue to increase.”

Key Trends Summary:

• The narrower pricing gap to create more potential for investment after three years of low transactions
• International investors still have eyes on added value opportunities
• Credit tightening will lead to more joint ventures

Shanghai resident Daniel Bian drank in the sweeping views over the Thai capital as he lay on a deckchair beside a swimming pool on the 19th floor of a luxury condominium.

“I feel alive. I feel free,” said an excited Bian, dapper in tinted sunglasses, flat-topped navy blue hat and a wraparound tunic cinched at the waist, his hair hanging loosely to his shoulders. “This is my dream.”

Many Chinese are eager to invest in a residence overseas, keen for a safety net in case of a similar disease outbreak, and also to hedge against economic risks at home.

Thailand maintains its appeal as an attractive destination for foreign property buyers, especially for those seeking a second home, despite specific limitations on property ownership.

As the situation gradually stabilises and returns to normalcy post-Covid, the allure of Thailand’s real estate market is growing stronger.

Notably, sales figures from foreign customers in the first quarter for some property developers have seen a significant surge, even in the absence of Chinese buyers who played a prominent role during the 2018-19 period.

The market could even be stronger once Chinese nationals resume their international trips, bringing about a promising future for foreign property investment in Thailand.

WHY DO FOREIGNERS PURCHASE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY IN THAILAND?

The underlying reasons are no different from the reasons why foreigners choose to visit the country.

An affordable cost of living, delicious cuisine, warm hospitality, convenient travel options and distinctive culture contribute to the appeal.

Most foreigners who invest in real estate in Thailand have experienced the country as a tourist before.

In recent years, several factors have been added to attract foreign buyers, including relocation from their home country, education for their children and investment opportunities.

According to the Phuket Real Estate Association, the largest group of foreign visitors arriving in Phuket between Nov 1, 2022 and March 7, 2023 was Russian nationals, with 387,329 visitors in total.

At the same time, Russian buyers emerged as the leading market in terms of condo transfers in Phuket in 2022, up from second spot during 2020-21 when Chinese buyers still dominated the market.

This turnover has been visible since the Russian-Ukraine war commenced in February 2022, according to the Real Estate Information Center (REIC).

Artitaya Kasemlawan, head of residential sales – project, advisory and transaction services at property consultant CBRE Thailand, said Russians have emerged as the primary buyers in the Phuket property market after the pandemic.

“Russian buyers are particularly drawn to pool villas with 2-5 bedrooms, as they seek more space for their families. The price range for these villas typically falls between 20 and 60 million baht, making them an attractive option for Russian buyers,” she said.

Boon Yongsakul, chairman of Phuket-based developer Boat Development, said Phuket boasts stunning natural beauty and its marinas are recognised as being among the best in the world.

“With 13 international schools offering British, American and French curriculums, many parents relocate their children from Hong Kong and Singapore to Phuket,” he said.

The less crowded environment also played a crucial role in attracting these families seeking a safer and more serene location for their children’s
education.

“This year, there has been a significant increase in the total number of students enrolled in the top five international schools,” said Mr Boon, who is also vice-president of the Phuket Real Estate Association.

“This rising trend will drive property purchases in the area.”

Phuket was proclaimed the “City of Gastronomy” by Unesco in 2015, due to its variety of culinary offerings, including Southern Thai cuisine, Hokkien dishes, other traditional Thai foods, as well as a wide selection of international options.

“Education, food and healthcare will bring in more buyers of luxury villas,” he said. “Last year, sales of |uxury villas rose 30%, particularly units in contemporary Thai style priced 10-50 million baht. Key buyers were Westerners living in Singapore.”

WHAT IS THE LARGEST MARKET IN TERMS OF BUYERS?

During the past five years, purchasers from China have been the leading nationality in terms of receiving condo transfers, accounting for 49% to 63% of the total, according to REIC.

“Despite difficulty in terms of outbound travel, Chinese buyers remained the largest group receiving condo transfers in Thailand last year,” said Vichai Viratkapan, acting director-general of REIC. “They accounted for nearly 50% in terms of both volume and value.”

He said the primary motivation behind their purchases was investment, as Chinese buyers opted for smaller-sized units compared to other foreign buyers.

In 2022, the average size of preferred units was 39.2 square metres, while the overall average size was 45.9 sq m.

Furthermore, the average unit price for Chinese buyers was 5.1 million baht,equivalent to 1 million yuan, an affordable amount for middle-income buyers.

Chinese buyers also stood at the top position in seven out of the 10 major tourist destinations in Thailand, including Bangkok, Chon Buri, Chiang Mai, Samut Prakan, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani and Rayong.

Kajonsit Singsansern, chief executive of property developer Siamese Asset Plc, said the Chinese wanted to have a second home in Thailand after visiting as a tourist. They also looked for the potential return on investment.

The majority of Chinese buyers were those in the middle-income segment. They typically spend around 1-2 million yuan or 5-10 million baht to purchase a condominium unit, with Bangkok being the primary destination.

Other popular locations for them include Phuket, Pattaya and Chiang Mai.

Chanin Vanijwongse, chief executive of property developer Habitat Group, said demand for condos and villas in Chon Buri from Chinese and Russian buyers has been strong since the beginning of the year.

“Property agents targeting Chinese and Russian buyers have returned as their buyers are coming back,” he said. “Most of the popular units are three-bedroom pool villas priced above 10 million baht.”

WHAT ARE EMERGING MARKETS?

Karlo Pobre, managing director of CIM Property Consultants, a Yangon-based property consultant, said certain affluent citizens of Myanmar were looking to acquire second homes in more secure and stable countries, such as Thailand.

“Many families from Myanmar purchased second homes in Thailand for three reasons,” he said. “They want to invest to preserve wealth, take advantage of healthcare services in Thailand and provide educational opportunities for their children.”

According to REIC, Myanmar was ranked as the sixth largest market getting condo transfers in Thailand in 2022.

This marked the first year that Myanmar buyers entered the top 10 ranking, with a total of 349 units transferred.

In terms of value, buyers from Myanmar were in third place, with transactions of 2.55 billion baht. They were second only to Chinese and Russian buyers, edging American, British and French buyers at third, fourth and fifth, respectively, in terms of the number of units transferred.

The average price per unit for condos transferred to buyers from Myanmar last year was the second highest among those transferred to foreigners, at 7.3 million baht, following Taiwanese at 7.4 million baht. The average price was 5.1 million baht.

Mr Pobre said the average price per unit for a condo in Yangon was US$250,000 or 8.5 million baht with an average size of 70-100 sq m or two bedrooms, as they live as a large family of two or three generations.

“At the same price brackets, condos in Thailand have relatively better quality and are more investment proof,” he added.

Bangkok was the top city when buyers look for a second home and want to buy a condo unit in Thailand. They preferred Sukhumvit because it is near mass transit lines, followed by locations with proximity to healthcare services and educational institutions.

Besides the large amount of condo transfers, Myanmar nationals continued purchasing new condos in the first quarter of this year, according to property developer Noble Development Plc.

The company reported that buyers from Myanmar were the second largest buyer with around 360 million baht in condo presales, which accounted for 26% of the total presales of 1.4 billion baht recorded from overall overseas markets.